XRP has broken below the $1.40 level that bulls spent much of the week trying to defend, raising the risk that another wave of selling could drag the token towards $1.28.
The cryptocurrency fell from $1.50 on October 7 to a low near $1.32 on Thursday before recovering towards $1.38 early Friday.
The rebound has not repaired the technical damage. XRP has lost several support levels in quick succession while rising US Treasury yields, firmer oil prices and a broader crypto sell-off have reduced appetite for risk.
XRP did not just test $1.40, sellers broke through it
The speed of the decline has changed the near-term picture. XRP closed October 7 around $1.42 after falling roughly 5%, then slid as low as $1.32 the following day.
That move cut through support near $1.45, $1.40 and $1.37, levels that may now become resistance during any rebound.
John Isige of FXStreet said XRP’s “path of least resistance remains downward”, pointing to bearish momentum signals and expanding exchange reserves.
XRP balances on Binance had risen to roughly 2.64 billion tokens, potentially increasing supply available for sale.
The macro backdrop has offered little relief, as Bitcoin traded below $83,000 during Thursday’s sell-off, while Brent crude settled above $104 and US Treasury yields remained historically elevated.
ETF demand remains, but sellers are still in control
Institutional demand has not disappeared. US spot XRP ETFs recorded $3.14 million of net inflows on October 6, taking cumulative inflows to roughly $1.79 billion.
Yet XRP continued falling, showing that incremental fund demand has not been large enough to absorb short-term selling.
Another anticipated catalyst has also moved further away. Evernorth Holdings delayed its expected Nasdaq debut under the XRPN ticker from October 8 to around October 12 because of an administrative issue.
The company expects its business combination with Armada Acquisition Corp. II to close around October 9 and plans to hold approximately 473 million XRP at closing.
That delay does not change Evernorth’s longer-term XRP strategy, but it removes a near-term event traders had been watching during an already fragile market.
The contradiction is becoming important, as institutional vehicles continue accumulating exposure, but spot price action remains weak.
Could $1.28 become XRP’s next major test?
The first area buyers need to defend is around $1.33. Below there, several technical scenarios cluster between roughly $1.27 and $1.30, putting $1.28 firmly in focus if selling accelerates.
EGRAG Crypto, cited by crypto.news, said a daily close back above $1.4850 would create a “strong chance this breakdown becomes a FAKEOUT”. He also identified $1.32-$1.27 as the deeper downside zone for now.
There is a counterargument. Cryptoinsightuk said deeply oversold four-hour momentum could produce a relief rally and highlighted the area above $1.30 as a possible accumulation zone.
But the analyst cautioned that oversold conditions alone do not confirm a bottom and said a sweep towards $1.22 remains possible if the range fails.
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